................fighting the bad fight since 135 BC................

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Could the Republicans blunder into 2012?

An interesting AP article (the MSNBC crosspost is provided here) reflects on the potential pitfalls that face the Republicans should they emerge victorious in the upcoming midterm elections.

As the situation stands now, a takeover of the House seems rather likely, while the Senate is a long shot. And, of course, the President is still a Democrat. This will make for a rather uneasy legislature.

This is particularly true given that many of the new Republicans will be enthusiastic Tea Party-backed young guns. The article explains the problem well:
First-termers who ran as enemies of business-as-usual in Washington aren't likely to be in the mood to accept the standard bargaining that's virtually certain to result once their colleagues on Capitol Hill and outside interest groups — including the business lobby — get a look at the GOP's proposals.

"They come in with an authenticity that nobody has: 'We were elected in the year of the tea party. We know what the people want. You are just old fuddy duddies who have been here forever and are part of the problem,'" said Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform who often advises congressional Republicans.
The uncompromising tenor of the House could clash badly with that of the Senate. Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been the face of Republican senatorial opposition to the Obama regime over the past two years, had this to say:
"I think humility and gratitude is the appropriate response to the midcourse correction that I think is coming — not, you know, sort of chest-beating or spiking the ball in the end zone or acting like we have been entrusted with the entire federal government," McConnell said in a recent interview.
Even The Heritage Foundation, and arch-conservative think tank, has reservations about what might come to pass:
"The Republican Party is still a tattered brand. It's not as if people are enthusiastically embracing the Republican brand — they're rejecting what has been done the last two years," said Michael Franc of the conservative Heritage Foundation, a House aide following the 1994 Republican takeover. "They're going to have to do something that is dramatic enough to say to people, 'We heard you.'"
It is worth remembering that Bill Clinton faced off against a similarly young and enthusiastic Congress in 1994, and emerged victorious in his second presidential election in 1998.

The problem here is that the Senate is going to prove to be a bottleneck for House ideas no matter who controls it. Compromises to House bills will be necessary in order to avoid filibusters and the like. When such modified bills are then passed back to Congress for approval, how will the Tea Party folks in office react? Will they be willing to give in on their values in order to achieve small victories? Or will they balk at such compromises?

And then there is the matter of President Obama himself, who has the right to veto any bill passed by Congress. One gets the feeling that he cannot overuse this privilege, especially if the Democrats maintain control of the Senate. How could he possibly nix legislation that his own party approves, however reluctantly.

The key here will be to watch the House, and not just on the vaunted "first 100 days". It will be how the House performs over the long term that will determine how the Republican brand will be perceived when it comes time for the next presidential election.

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