Karl Rove wants to make sure you never forget him

Were you dying to hear Karl Rove's assessment of how the midterm elections are going to play out? Of course you did! Well, even if you didn't, Mr. Rove emptied his brain onto the pages of the Wall Street Journal -- you can get the online version of his article here.

So what does The Architect make of the Republicans' push to take back Congress? Well, here is what he has to say:

Virtually everyone agrees that 20 of the 37 Senate seats on the ballot this year are in play. Twelve are now held by Democrats and eight by Republicans. The Republican-held seats appear increasingly safe. It's Democrats' seats that are at risk.

As for the lower chamber, the political handicappers Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg both now have 91 Democratic House seats and nine Republican House seats in play (albeit with slightly different names on each list). Politico.com sees 99 Democratic House seats up for grabs versus five Republican seats.

How many are likely to fall? The American Enterprise Institute's Henry Olson examined wave elections (in which one party gains a big number of seats) and found that the winning party picks up roughly 70% of the seats considered vulnerable. If that model holds, we're looking at a net Republican pickup of 64 to 69 seats in the House and roughly eight seats in the Senate.

I doubt Republican gains will be that big, at least in the House. Democratic candidates have a financial edge—they ended the third quarter with an average of 53% more cash on hand than their Republican opponents. While the GOP is closing the financial gap in the final weeks, money matters.

Okay, that's reasonable enough, and seems to be in line with what most pundits are saying. But it's the beginning of this article where things are a little strange.

Before unveiling his prediction, Mr. Rove made sure to take a few potshots at the Obama administration. Here are his words:

The economy and jobs are the No. 1 issue in every poll. Yet Mr. Obama of late has talked about immigration reform and weighed in (unprompted) on the Ground Zero mosque. He devoted Labor Day to an ineffective Mideast peace initiative. He demeans large blocs of voters and now is ending his midterm pitch with attacks on nonexistent foreign campaign contributions and weird assertions that "the Empire is striking back."

Meanwhile, Republicans have talked about little else than the economy—drawing attention to lackluster job growth, the failed stimulus, out-of-control spending, escalating deficits and the dangers of ObamaCare.

Well, fine, the Empire Stikes Back reference, delivered in a speech at Ohio State University, was pretty nonsensical. Here's a clip of that in case you missed it:



But let's unpack the rest of Mr. Rove's remarks. First off, he wants us to believe that Obama offered an unprompted opinion on the erroneously named "Ground Zero mosque". Excuse me? The folks at Fox News and other right-wing outlets were demanding that the President weigh in on the issue. What was surprising was that he waited so long (sadly, his wishy-washy remarks were not a surprise, given the tenor of his Presidency).

As for immigration reform, the passage of Arizona Senate Bill 1070 forced the administration to take action, given their opposition to it.

Which brings us to his last point. Mr. Rove would have us believe that Republicans have been focused in on the issue of the economy while ignoring the supposed noise emanating from the White House. But it was Republicans who passed SB 1070, and subsequently threw a collective fit when the Obama administration intervened. It is Republicans that are making a big deal over Park51. And while I'm not a big fan of "ObamaCare", Republicans spend more time demonizing it than they do suggesting viable alternatives.

I believe I have made it quite clear that I am far from Obama's biggest fan. But whenever Mr. Rove places himself back in the media spotlight, it's a reminder that things could be worse.